¿Ha sido la Dinámica de la Balanza de Pagos Realmente una Restricción para el Crecimiento Económico en México? - Parte 1

Abstract

This paper analyzes whether the dynamics of the balance of payments (BP) of Mexico has been a constraint on Mexicos Economic Growth. The literature on the subject discusses the growth restriction of the balance of payments based on the external imbalance problem. Empirical evidence has shown that most Latin American countries have had the external gap constraint. Though restricted growth models studying this issue have been identified in three approaches for analysis (the demand approach of Thirlwalls model, the structural model or three gaps (external, savings and fiscal) and the institutional approach), this research proposes a dynamic analysis through the estimation of VAR and VEC models.The goal is to contribute to the growing empirical evidence of the impact of the external sector on economic growth. Several studies on the theme have been made based on different approaches for the case of: Argentina (Fugarolas and Matesanz, 2005), Ecuador (Velastegui, 2007), Bolivia (Averilca and Risso, 2007), Brazil (Gonzaga, 2003 and Brito, 2008), Colombia (Velasco, 2006 and Garcia and Quevedo, 2005), among others. Econometric analysis of the proposed models is presented in the next issue of the Journal, part II of this research, which will analyze long and short term relations. The results suggest that the macroeconomic stability in recent years has created an attractive environment for the development of the external sector; however, monetary measures are not the only option to correct the imbalances of the BP.