Capital Market and Macroeconomic Reaction to The Hamas-Israel Conflict 2023

Abstract

The research examines the capital market and macroeconomic reactions of UN-12 countries before and after the Hamas-Israel conflict 2023. It based on differences in abnormal returns, return variability, trading volume, exchange rates, oil prices, and gold prices before and after the conflict using the event study method (-5, +5). Statistical tests applied paired sample t-test and the Wilcoxon signed-rank test (non-parametric test). The US, China, Saudi Arabia, and Indonesia markets simultaneously have differences in AR, return variability, and trading volume. Dollar value was relatively stable during the conflict. Oil price reaction was dominant in UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar. Gold prices reacted in almost all markets. This research is limited to cross-country level, the results are considered homogeneous across all markets. Future research could investigate specific sectors and isolate external events to validate the results. Empirical results are important for policymakers and investors in decision-making against geopolitical risks. Investors turn to gold as a safe-haven asset during conflicts. This is the first study to examine the Hamas-Israel conflict 2023 on capital markets and macroeconomics across UN member.