Integridad ecológica y crecimiento económico: validación empírica de la curva ambiental de Kuznets a nivel municipal en México con métodos econométricos y de RNA

Abstract

Ecological Integrity and Economic Growth: An Empirical Validation of the Environmental Kuznets Curve at the Municipal Level in Mexico Using Econometric and Artificial Neural Network Methods

This study evaluates the empirical validity of the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) at the municipal level in Mexico, using econometric models and artificial neural networks (ANNs). The relationship between gross production per capita and the Ecological Integrity Index (EII) is analyzed, considering the moderating effect of population size and municipal functional capacities. The results show that the EKC is only validated when a small subset of municipalities with irreplaceable natural capital and high per capita income are included. When these are excluded, the relationship disappears, suggesting that environmental recovery linked to economic growth is neither an extensive nor endogenous phenomenon in most of the country's municipalities. It is concluded that municipalities with irreplaceable natural capital should receive priority and differentiated attention in conservation policies, while the rest of the territory requires specific and differentiated strategies for containment, restoration, and institutional strengthening, in addition to cross-cutting cooperation policies among the three levels of government to align territorial planning efforts.