The Medium-Run Equilibrium Exchange Rate, Remittances, and External Adjustment in Mexico
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.21919/remef.v21i2.1543Palabras clave:
Exchange rate, Remittances, Balance of trade, Current account, Vector Error Correction modelResumen
El tipo de cambio de equilibrio de mediano plazo, las remesas y el ajuste externo en México
Este estudio examina la influencia de la balanza comercial y de las remesas en tipo de cambio peso-dólar. Se estima un modelo de Vector de Corrección de Error (VEC) incorporando variables macroeconómicas clave como la tasa de interés, la inflación, el PIB potencial, la cuenta corriente, los términos de comercio y las remesas, utilizando el enfoque de cointegración de Johansen y capturando relaciones de equilibrio a largo plazo entre variables. Los resultados proporcionan evidencia de cointegración y ajustes dinámicos ante shocks indicando que las remesas ejercen un efecto limitado sobre el tipo de cambio, que se ajusta respondiendo a movimientos en la cuenta corriente y otros fundamentos macroeconómicos. El estudio está limitado por la naturaleza no estática de la dinámica cambiaria, pero presenta implicaciones en el contexto de políticas migratorias y el tratamiento fiscal de las remesas por el gobierno estadounidense.
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