The endogeneity of the natural rate of growth in Latin American countries

Abstract

This study estimates the natural rate of growth à la León-Ledesma and Thirlwall for a panel of eleven Latin American countries from 2000 to 2023 using the seemingly unrelated regressions (SUR) estimator. Likewise, in the model, we incorporate a dummy variable in boom periods to determine whether endogeneity is present due to variations in the current rate of growth. Our results show that the behavior of the natural rate has a direct relationship with changes in the current rate; that is, it increases in boom periods and decreases during recessions, confirming the presence of endogeneity. In this sense, it is advisable to continue exploring the nature of the sensitivity of the natural growth rate to the economic situation. By providing recent evidence for Latin American countries with different degrees of economic development, our results allow us to conclude that the hypothesis of full employment on the supply side is not sufficient to explain the economic dynamics, so the inclusion of demand variables is necessary.