Industrialización hacia afuera, balanza de pagos y restricción externa: un análisis para México, 1995-2020

Abstract

Outward industrialization, balance of payments and external restriction: an analysis for Mexico, 1995-2020

The aim of this paper is to examine the impact of the characteristics of specialization patterns on industrial dynamics, using a strong version of Thirlwall's external constraint model, for 13 manufacturing subsectors in Mexico during the period 1995-2020. The main findings show that: i) the growth of the manufacturing sector is constrained by the current account equilibrium; ii) the income elasticity of exports increases as productivity and capital accumulation grow; iii) the income elasticity of imports is greater to the extent that the participation of foreign value added in export production increases. With this evidence, it is possible to conclude that the deepening of the outward industrialization model has limited the gains associated with trade and slowed down economic growth. In this context, it is essential to operate an industrial policy that strengthens internal supply chains and the position within global value chains. The contribution of the work lies in analyzing at the subsector level the implications of the composition of trade on economic expansion.